AFL Finals Predictions

The footy finals are looming which means its time for some finals predictions. My predictions relate to topics covered by the countries media.

I predict we will get to witness the annual media reports, from journalists who are clearly clearing their desks ready for holidays over the off season. Sit back and enjoy the media recycled from every past footy finals season. Only the names have been changed to protect the innocent.

Brownlow Medal

There will be pages written on who is most likely to win and who should win. Yes these can be two different things. Like every year writers will again pontificate on the bias of umpires towards different teams and players – yes Eddie McGuire we know that this never works in the favour of a Collingwood Player – and the disadvantage some players face due to the position they play. Apparently defenders never win awards.

There will also be the inevitable discussion on players that are not eligible to win the award because they were found guilty of breaking the rules by the tribunal. Everyone agrees with the general rule relating to the award being for the Best and Fairest, unless of course it is a player from the team for which they barrack is affected. Then of course the rule should be changed in time for this year’s Brownlow Medal Count. The media love this debate, even in years when it is realty a non issue.

Tanking

Each year the ethics of teams who are of no chance to make the finals will be questioned. Did they tank to get better draft picks the following year? OR in real terms…did they do everything they could within the rules to increase their chances of winning next year’s premiership.

Teams at the top of the table are not immune from tanking claims. Did the club rest its best players in games in the last game or two of the home and away season, when the outcome of the game was not going to have any impact on the make up of the finals? Or in real terms…did they do everything they could within the rules to increase their chances of winning this year’s premiership.

The mediocrity of Collingwood in 2014 means that Eddie will not have to answer to such claims this year.

Suspensions

A key player will be suspended for one of the finals teams throughout the finals series or, god forbid, for the grand final itself. Journalists will have conniptions about the severity of the penalty on the player and the team. Journalists will argue this point with a veracity and sincerity that is normally reserved for discussing the crisis in the middle east. This conversation will contain little, if any, reflection on whether or not the player should have just followed the rules in which there would not have been any risk of suspension in the first place.

The MCG

The AFL is contractually obligated to host a certain number of finals at the MCG. As this is a financial contract it is clearly more important than the agreement in place with the teams  where the higher ranked team in each final gets a home game.  Of course for Collingwood (Eddie can relax), Hawthorn, Richmond and Melbourne football clubs the MCG is the home ground.

This is sure to be an issue in the 2014 finals series with up to five of the eight teams  being non-Melbourne based.

What is reported regarding this issue will of course be dependent on the state in which the articles were written. If Melbourne media had their way all finals would be played at the MCG. Actually Victorian Media would create divide the competition into 2 American-style conferences to ensure that at least one Victorian team makes the grand final.

Injury

At lest one key player is sure to get injured and be at risk of not being able to play in the big game. This is what a journalist’s wet dream is made of. Endless discussion of the injury itself, the medical response and recovery, what it will mean to the team structure, could an opposition team exploit this.

The team and player themselves will remain tight lipped, despite this being the standard response from every team and player throughout the history of footy final injuries, the Australian media will see this as a sign of conspiracy and only lead to an increase in the conjecture.

In most cases the player will make a “miraculous recover” and play in the final leaving the commentators with two options. If he plays well then he is a hero, if he plays poorly he has an excuse and was brave just to get on the field, a hero.

The only injury for Collingwood this year will by Eddie with Collingwood’s early exit from the premiership season.

Eddie McGuire is a Giraffe



Source: abc.net.au

 Well he has at least stuck his neck out. The headline was more like McGuire, Goodes Gaffe. I point this out as an example of an actual slip of the tongue, (ok in this example it is more of a slip of the eyes).


In reading the word “giraffe” I was concerned that all African wild life was now considered racist. If so, this would give a valid reason for finally ridding our televisions of the god awfiul “compare the meerkat” insurance add.

Eddie’s excuse for suggesting that Swan’s star Adam Goodes should be involved in promoting the new stage musical King Kong, was a slip of the tongue. And this only days after supporting Goodes through a racist slur when a Collingwood supporter called the Swan’s player an ape.

A slip of the tongue. This begs the question, what was he trying to say...

• Goodes should help promote Chinese Hong Kong.
• Goodes should promote his king size schlong.
• Goodes is the king of conga-line.
• The promotion of King Kong is good. (If he likes the promotion wait until he sees the show!)

Eddie, out with it, what were you trying to say when you clearly likened one of the games superstars with a 6meter tall wild gorilla?

The AFL quite rightly have decided this is an act of racial vilification. Despite this Eddie still proclaims to not have a racist bone in his body. This may be the case, but his tongue clearly has some issues with Australia’s first people.

Eddie clearly plays by his own rules, and deduces his own logic if he can still declare himself a leader in racial tolerance less than 24 hours after being found guilty of racial vilification. The pressure is getting to him. It is clearly his time on the hot seat. His arguments are as logical as many of the Millionaire Hot Seat contestants as they sift through the multiple choice answers. Can we dip the lights and have a drone sound effect? If the fuse timeline reaches the end before he makes sense are we allowed to say goodbye to Eddie McGuire from football?

Please say yes. He could ride his giraffe off into the sunset. With his head the size of a hippopotamus’ arse it was be difficult for the giraffe, but a spectacle worthy of a David Attenborough commentary.

Footy Tips

I must preface this piece with the fact that I only follow Aussie rules football enough to be able to hold a conversation. A brief conversation. I understand that my lack of passion about football (or at least admitting my lack of interest may be considered un-Australian. As evidence I submit the following as Exhibit A.

I nominally barrack for Port Adelaide Power, I know the coach is Matthew Primus and I think one of the Cornes brothers still plays for them. I know that this year they will win the wooden spoon. That is all I know about their involvement in the 2011 season.

Despite my indifference to the sport I have entered my workplace’s footy tips. I am currently in second position equal on wins (126) I am second only on points difference from Friday might games. I think 126 is good but really have no idea nor have any real interest in how many games have been played or what professional tipsters have achieved this season.

At the beginning of the season I was picking pretty much by how good I thought the team should be, a decision which was largely based on the level of hype each team had created. Choosing winners by amount of media coverage is about as calculating as choosing by the colours of their uniform. Using the media strategy lead to a number of unwanted selections of Collingwood due to their unabashed media-whore President, Eddie McGuire. Collingwood will hereby be referred to as “The Eddies”.

After the first five or six rounds I started to pick teams according to their position on the ladder at the time. A strategy which, unfortunately lead me to continue picking The Eddies much more than I would prefer.

It was a strategy that kept me above the middle of the pack within the office tipping. To be honest that was all I was hoping for – to no embarrass myself.

I stuck with this theory (including continuing to begrudgingly selecting the Eddies) for many weeks only deviating when the injury of a key player was so significant that even in my attempt to avoid football “news” still seeped into my consciousness. For example Jonathon Brown having his face smashed in for the second time in as many seasons.

This strategy saw me gradually but consistently rise up through the tipping ladder until I found myself in second position about 5 weeks ago. When I discovered that I was second and with a real chance of winning.

Suddenly I found myself intentionally listening to football news of injuries, changes of coaches – with the exception of Melbourne always pick the team which has a new coach, the history between the two teams playing even down to the detail of the history between teams as particular grounds.

Sadly this still leads to selecting the Eddies. Easy picks also include Geelong and whichever teams are playing against Port Adelaide or Gold Coast on any given week.

Unusually the footy tips website my workplace uses also provides details about the parking availability at each ground. Not really sure how this helps with selecting the winning team. Aren’t these guys meant to be elite athletes? I did not think the couple of extra metres one team had to walk across a parking lot would have an adverse bearing on the outcome of a game.

I have drawn the line at watching Channel Nine’s The Footy Show, for either football information or entertainment. No footy competition is worth sacrificing my dignity nor intelligence - no matter how large or small either of these may be.

Whilst I will continue to select the Eddies, I would happily sacrifice my own success proportionally to the end of their winning streak.